By 2030, climate scientists have predicted that Mexico’s cropland suitability will have declined by 40 to 70 percent. By the end of the century, this number could be anywhere from 60 to 100 percent.
The real-world impacts of this prediction will be devastating for Mexico’s agricultural sector and ultimately, the economy. Farms across the country will no longer have viable land to produce food for the local population or international trade.
Fruits and vegetables like avocados, tomatoes, and peppers will become increasingly difficult to grow, translating into a loss of cash yield from these popular crops. In 2017, 3.4% of Mexico’s GDP was from agricultural trade. Thus, a loss in this income will have significant consequences for the livelihoods of the Mexican people who rely on international trade in the agricultural sector.
Climate change and its harmful effects on crop viability will also have a crippling effect on the health of the Mexican people. Since NAFTA, the diet of those residing in Mexico has shifted, with more Mexicans consuming packaged, sugary items that are cheaper, thanks to international trade. This shift has caused diabetes and a range of health problems to skyrocket in the country.
With climate change, the crop availability will go down, meaning that fruits and vegetables meant for domestic consumption will suffer. As the prices of Mexican agriculture increase with its scarcity, it will be the population of the United States who can afford the products. Thus, exporting from Mexico will be even more lucrative, and the amounts of produce staying in-country will continue to decline.
Climate change will exacerbate the health problems Mexico is already experiencing, particularly for women. With a limit on crop availability, women will turn to unhealthy but cheaper alternatives negatively impacting their nutrition. Ultimately, this will lead to compromised prenatal health and an increased prevalence of medical problems among their children.
Moreover, one of the largest environmental risks Mexico faces is a water shortage crisis. The country has already begun to feel the impacts of a diminishing water supply. Nearly 20 percent of Mexico City’s population turn the taps on each day only to find that nothing comes out. For some, it only comes once a week and will often not be potable.
The issue stems from the country’s dependence on underground aquifers and its dilapidated water infrastructure. As the population grows and demand soars, underwater aquifers are being rapidly depleted. Furthermore, more than 40% of the water that goes through pipes and water networks is lost to leakage and channel issues.
It has become clearer with the progression of climate change that marginalized and at-risk populations are the ones who suffer the brunt of global warming. Often, poorer families can’t afford to be linked to the water system, forcing them to spend precious resources on bottled water.
The water shortage and overall climate change disproportionately impact women. They often have to wait at home all day for water tanker (pipas) trucks, which run late or they must stand in line waiting for the water cargo to arrive.
Mireya Imaz, a program director at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, told the New York Times last year, “[w]ater becomes the center of women’s lives in places where there is a serious problem. Women in Iztapalapa can spend all night waiting for the pipas, then they have to be home for the trucks, and sometimes they will ride with the drivers to make sure the drivers deliver the water, which is not always a safe thing to do. It becomes impossible for many poor women to work outside the home.” Thus, as water scarcity continues to worsen, it will be the women who will have to leave the workforce to find alternatives and secure, clean water for families.
Furthermore, as climate change limits the opportunities of women to work, their economic openings will wane, and they will become reliant on male counterparts. Their autonomy will be limited, they will be less likely to leave abusive relationships, and they will have less control over household financials.
Thus, the rights of women and their future are inextricably linked to climate change. One cannot begin to develop gender-inclusive policies respective to Mexico unless they take into account the future effects of global warming. Only then can development strategies have long-lasting impacts.
